Add Cold Weather Payment planning doc (#435)#1736
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#435 asks for Cold Weather Payment to be modelled. Persist the modelling plan in-repo because the geographic weather-event eligibility is the unusual bit and shouldn't be left to ad-hoc implementation decisions. The page covers: - the policy structure (SI 1988/1724): £25 per 7-day cold period at the household's weather station, conditional on a qualifying-benefit receipt with the relevant addition / age trigger, - three modelling approaches for the weather side: expected-value parameterisation (smooth aggregate, wrong per-winter), regional mixing from Met Office historic data (recommended), and year-specific lookups for back-casts, - three-phase implementation: Phase 1 expected-value gate + payment; Phase 2 regional weather mixing; Phase 3 Scottish Winter Heating Payment under SSI 2023/8 as a separate variable, - data sources (DWP CWP statistics for calibration; Met Office historic stations for regional expected periods), - open questions on composite vs disaggregated eligibility flags and whether to model Welsh top-ups.
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Summary
docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.mdbecause the geographic weather-event eligibility is the unusual bit and shouldn't be left to ad-hoc implementation decisions.Test plan
programs/gov/dwp/.🤖 Generated with Claude Code